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| Google Images: Mitt Romney could make a splash among voters in 2012 |
With debt ceiling talks imploding, and both parties taking significant hits in the polls as Americans go more and more frustrated with the way in which Washington works and the posturing that both sides go through before anything is accomplished, this creates the perfect opportunity for a well-funded republican challenger to step into the spotlight. With Rick Perry not yet declaring (and if he does decide to throw his hat in the ring, declaring extremely late), all indications point to Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee for president in 2012. And a mix of different polls shows that Romney actually has fairly good odds at, at a minimum, taking President Obama down to the wire on election night.
Let's take a look at the polls and see what we can conclude.
The Polls
Poll #1: Obama vs. GOP General Election Results
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| fivethiryeight.blogs.nytimes.com |
Many people say that polling data this far away from 2012 seems hardly useful. And for the most part, I would agree with them, especially in regards to head-to-head polling like the one above. But times are changing, and with Washington spending multiple months, up to a year, on one single issue (like health care or like the debt ceiling currently), those poll numbers are less likely to change significantly. Let me put it another way: It used to be that an incumbent president this far away from the election had plenty of time to discuss new issues and reassure discontent voters by proposing and encouraging the passage of legislation that was important to them. But 2012 could be radically different. After spending more than eight months on health care and six months (and counting) on debt ceiling negotiations, the United States Congress and subsequently, the president of the United States, has very little room to maneuver when it comes to other important issues that could assist in bolstering their election prospects. This could play to the strength of the GOP nominee, who will not be handicapped by what's driving Washington and the the large chunks of time that the president will be using to deal with his presidential duties rather than hitting the campaign trail, fundraising with donors and pushing his message.
Poll #2: Presidential Approval Ratings
The second piece of polling data that is important to look at when discussing the election in 2012 is the president's approval ratings. While day-to-day polling is important to see, it is also important to look at the general trajectory and try to imply where it is headed. Of course, President Obama began his tenure with huge support and gigantic hopes for a new Washington. Unfortunately, a number of those hopes and promises have gone unfulfilled and Washington remains gridlocked. While President Obama is not fully to blame for the gridlock (especially on the debt ceiling, where congressional republicans continue to hold the economy hostage), voters really only care about one thing: "I voted for Obama because I wanted change, and change did not happen." And the president's approval rating has reflected that discontent, hovering in the mid 40's for months. While in other election cycles, I would argue that the president has plenty of time to raise his numbers, campaigning and promoting his message enough to get a majority of voters, I'm not so sure about it this time. As I previously said, if Obama is stuck in Washington arguing with congressional leaders on the Hill about how to raise the debt ceiling again in eight months, the republican nominee has a huge opportunity to outwork and out-campaign the president.
Poll #3: Debt Ceiling Polling
When asked to whom they would assign responsibility should the limit not be raised, 48 percent of respondents chose the congressional Republicans; 34 percent said they would blame the Obama administration.
These results echo a Pew Research Center poll conducted from June 16-19 which asked the same question as the Quinnipiac poll. According to that survey, 42 percent of respondents said they would blame Republicans in Congress if the debt ceiling were not raised; 33 percent chose the Obama Administration.
Source: Quinnipac Polling
The above poll (and other polls like it) seem to spell good news for President Obama. A large plurality of Americans (48%) would blame congressional republicans if the United States defaulted. Short term, Obama may win the battle. But dig deeper, think long term, and the above polling might not be so cheery for Democratic strategists. If the country does surpass the August 2nd deadline and the US begins the process of defaulting on our debt, this country will see an anti-incumbent sentiment so strong that 2012 could be the largest wave election (i.e. incumbents losing in droves) that we have ever seen. And even though it is the republicans who have largely been holding the economy hostage with these debt ceiling talks, Obama cannot win. Even if he comes out with a short-term victory, voters will view the president as "bad" and congressional republicans as "horrible." Either way, they are likely to start looking for someone new.
Conclusion
Of course, there is clearly the chance that Republicans nominate someone who is too conservative to maximize their opportunity with swing voters. The republican base is becoming more and more ideologically driven and presidential candidates will have to move sharply right in order to attain the party's nomination and quiet and reassure the tea party. On the other hand, while incumbent presidents are very difficult to defeat, someone like Romney would probably compel a very close election unless the economic recovery picks up its pace next year.
