Sunday Opinion: Romney Could Take Down Obama in 2012

Google Images: Mitt Romney could make a splash among voters in 2012

For my Sunday opinion piece, I'd like to quickly expand on a point that I made yesterday, which was that Washington's toxic climate could make presidential re-election very difficult in 2012. 

With debt ceiling talks imploding, and both parties taking significant hits in the polls as Americans go more and more frustrated with the way in which Washington works and the posturing that both sides go through before anything is accomplished, this creates the perfect opportunity for a well-funded republican challenger to step into the spotlight. With Rick Perry not yet declaring (and if he does decide to throw his hat in the ring, declaring extremely late), all indications point to Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee for president in 2012. And a mix of different polls shows that Romney actually has fairly good odds at, at a minimum, taking President Obama down to the wire on election night.

Let's take a look at the polls and see what we can conclude. 

The Polls
Poll #1: Obama vs. GOP General Election Results

fivethiryeight.blogs.nytimes.com

Nate Silver recently released a poll with some rather shocking results.  While Giuliani appears to beat Obama by 1.3 points, the possibility of him getting the nomination is tremendously small. The scarier number for Democrats is against Mitt Romney, where the president only leads by around 2 percentage points. 

Many people say that polling data this far away from 2012 seems hardly useful. And for the most part, I would agree with them, especially in regards to head-to-head polling like the one above. But times are changing, and with Washington spending multiple months, up to a year, on one single issue (like health care or like the debt ceiling currently), those poll numbers are less likely to change significantly. Let me put it another way: It used to be that an incumbent president this far away from the election had plenty of time to discuss new issues and reassure discontent voters by proposing and encouraging the passage of legislation that was important to them. But 2012 could be radically different. After spending more than eight months on health care and six months (and counting) on debt ceiling negotiations, the United States Congress and subsequently, the president of the United States, has very little room to maneuver when it comes to other important issues that could assist in bolstering their election prospects. This could play to the strength of the GOP nominee, who will not be handicapped by what's driving Washington and the the large chunks of time that the president will be using to deal with his presidential duties rather than hitting the campaign trail, fundraising with donors and pushing his message. 

Poll #2: Presidential Approval Ratings

The second piece of polling data that is important to look at when discussing the election in 2012 is the president's approval ratings. While day-to-day polling is important to see, it is also important to look at the general trajectory and try to imply where it is headed. Of course, President Obama began his tenure with huge support and gigantic hopes for a new Washington. Unfortunately, a number of those hopes and promises have gone unfulfilled and Washington remains gridlocked. While President Obama is not fully to blame for the gridlock (especially on the debt ceiling, where congressional republicans continue to hold the economy hostage), voters really only care about one thing: "I voted for Obama because I wanted change, and change did not happen." And the president's approval rating has reflected that discontent, hovering in the mid 40's for months. While in other election cycles, I would argue that the president has plenty of time to raise his numbers, campaigning and promoting his message enough to get a majority of voters, I'm not so sure about it this time. As I previously said, if Obama is stuck in Washington arguing with congressional leaders on the Hill about how to raise the debt ceiling again in eight months, the republican nominee has a huge opportunity to outwork and out-campaign the president.

Poll #3: Debt Ceiling Polling

When asked to whom they would assign responsibility should the limit not be raised, 48 percent of respondents chose the congressional Republicans; 34 percent said they would blame the Obama administration.

These results echo a Pew Research Center poll conducted from June 16-19 which asked the same question as the Quinnipiac poll. According to that survey, 42 percent of respondents said they would blame Republicans in Congress if the debt ceiling were not raised; 33 percent chose the Obama Administration.

Source: Quinnipac Polling

The above poll (and other polls like it) seem to spell good news for President Obama. A large plurality of Americans (48%) would blame congressional republicans if the United States defaulted. Short term, Obama may win the battle. But dig deeper, think long term, and the above polling might not be so cheery for Democratic strategists. If the country does surpass the August 2nd deadline and the US begins the process of defaulting on our debt, this country will see an anti-incumbent sentiment so strong that 2012 could be the largest wave election (i.e. incumbents losing in droves) that we have ever seen. And even though it is the republicans who have largely been holding the economy hostage with these debt ceiling talks, Obama cannot win. Even if he comes out with a short-term victory, voters will view the president as "bad" and congressional republicans as "horrible." Either way, they are likely to start looking for someone new.

Conclusion

Of course, there is clearly the chance that Republicans nominate someone who is too conservative to maximize their opportunity with swing voters. The republican base is becoming more and more ideologically driven and presidential candidates will have to move sharply right in order to attain the party's nomination and quiet and reassure the tea party.  On the other hand, while incumbent presidents are very difficult to defeat, someone like Romney would probably compel a very close election unless the economic recovery picks up its pace next year.

Debt Ceiling Could Prove to Be Major Victory for Republican Presidential Candidate

Google Images: Mitt Romney, the GOP front runner

I feel bad for Republican presidential candidates. They've been trying so hard to get attention recently, with a number of televised debates, campaign stops, and television appearances. But the GOP field just can't seem to catch a break. And Mitt Romney is taking it the hardest.

Romney's problems stem largely from the issues I've addressed with the mass media and the way in which it functions. Why report on Romney's serious economic proposals when Herman Cain is saying that he would outlaw any legislation over three pages, or Michelle Bachmann is reportedly having migraine headaches? The average viewer watches the news for short and interesting tidbits of information, not full-scale political analysis of major issues. This is why PBS, with its lack of flair and dramatics, is so unpopular among mainstream Americans. 

But Romney, who many consider to be the front runner of the GOP presidential race, may have caught a major break with the ongoing debt ceiling crisis happening in Washington. And he did not have to do a single thing.

Analysis: GOP Presidential Candidate Could Profit From Debt Talks
With the debt crisis consuming every single part of Washington, Romney and the other serious presidential contenders (I'm looking at you Rick Perry) have two major things going for them:

• Being outside of Washington, away from negotiations, and away from the possibility of having to vote to increase the debt ceiling, is a major advantage right now. While polls show that the American people are starting to understand the seriousness of the situation if we were default on our debts, they are still fairly evenly split on whether or not we should raise the debt ceiling. While everyone in Washington (I would hope) and those who consider themselves politically active know, it is an impossibility to not raise the debt ceiling. It will be raised, it is just a matter of how long it will take to hammer out some kind of compromise between the two parties. But reality does not matter in politics. Politics is solely driven by perception. President Obama is not only directly tied to an increase in the debt ceiling, but he also has to sign the bill into law and waste plenty of resources explaining why the ceiling needs to be raised to a relatively uninformed general populous. Nominees like Romney and Perry, on the other hand, have no such problem. In fact, knowing that their base is strongly opposed to any raising of the debt ceiling under any circumstances, I would be shocked if you don't soon see Romney railing against raising the debt ceiling, saying that if he was in Congress he would have opposed it. Is this the truth? Of course not. For all the flack that Romney takes, I'm the first to admit that he possesses a very high level of intellect, especially for things related to business. And as a businessman, Romney knows that if the debt ceiling is not raised, the United States could face an economic catastrophe. But that doesn't matter, because he will never have to vote on it in Congress or sign legislation that would raise it (at least through the campaign). 

Google Images: President Obama in the White House Briefing Room

• But that's not the only thing that Republican candidates have going for them. While Republicans like Romney are hitting the campaign trail hard, spending hours a day stumping and fundraising with major donors, Obama is stuck in Washington, dealing with anger from both sides, from Republicans who are vehemently against raising taxes and from Democrats who refuse to accept any entitlement cuts. Romney raised $18.4 million last quarter, far surpassing the amount that all other candidates took in combined. However, Romney still loses out to the incumbent president, who took in a record shattering $87 million dollars. But comparing the two numbers ignores the bigger issue. Romney is out campaigning every day, getting his policy positions out there, crusading against the President and his policies. While Obama's grassroots machine has begun to ratchet up, Obama himself has not had the opportunity to really hit the ground running in a number of key battleground states he needs to take to win in 2012. For all those who say that it's too early to even think about the President campaigning, consider this. According to the latest Gallup poll, the president's approval rating sits at 43%, far from the 52.9% that he took in the general election. These poll numbers are worrisome because his approval is down among his own base. If the President wants to rally his base and reassure independents by making sure that they don't just sit out on election day, he needs as early of a start as possible. With the fragile state of the economic recovery, and Republicans doing all they can to make sure that he does not pass a single piece of landmark legislation (or, for that matter, any legislation that would help the president in righting the economy), Obama has some major work to do if he wants to see electoral success again in 2012. 

Google Images: Voter anger with any all incumbents will certainly flair up after the extended and extremely frustrating weeks of debt ceiling negotiations. This is likely to help boost the Republican nominee, who will be able to paint him/herself as an outsider, much like Senator Obama in the run-up to the 2008 election. 

• Furthermore, while Obama may win the battle, he's growing more and more likely by the day to lose the war. Think about it this way: Polls show that if a potential default were to happen, Republicans in Congress would be blamed by 50% of Americans whereas the president would only be blamed by 33%. According to one commentator, the public would view Obama as bad and congressional republicans as even. Obama cannot win and republicans know it. And GOP presidential candidates should be licking their chops at the opportunity to hit Obama hard on the debt ceiling. With Speaker Boehner walking out of a potential bipartisan deal earlier today, this now leave the McConnell compromise as the last real bill on the table. McConnell's plan would essentially grant the president with 100% of the responsibility to raise the debt ceiling, allowing members of Congress to vote no and shifting all the blame for the unpopular action of raising the ceiling squarely on Obama's shoulders. The way in which the debt ceiling negotiations have been handled is likely to cause a rabid anti-incumbent sentiment for Washington politicians. Like it or not, even acting as the most mature man in the room (assuming an almost father like role over his "congressional" children), President Obama is the leader of the "typical, Washington politicians." President Obama will ultimately find it difficult to stave off a well-funded republican candidate who runs as an outsider, just as Senator Obama did in 2008.  

Conclusion

If you ask me, Republican leadership knows exactly what they're doing. By handicapping the President's ability to fund raise, forcing him to engage in seriously unpopular talks, and potentially giving him the sole approval to increase the debt ceiling (allowing Congress to vote no and putting all the responsibility on the shoulders of the President), they are doing all they can to set the president up for failure in 2012. The most telling of quotes comes from Senate  Minority Leader Mitch McConnell:

The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president.

Forget compromise, forget the possibility of defaulting on our debts, forget that American voters elect officials to represent them and act and vote in a responsible and grown-up manner. Washington has slowly but surely become a political  circus, a place where the minority party will do anything and everything to ensure that the incumbent does not get re-elected. Republicans have recently mastered this strategy, reaffirming the beliefs of millions of discontent Americans. If the possibility of a market meltdown and rapidly increasing interest rates (among dozens of other things) does not spur this Congress to quickly find compromise, I have absolutely no idea what will.